Copper Tariff Deadline Passes Without Full Resolution as US Stockpiling Hits Records
The US Commerce Department’s 30 June deadline for a decision on refined copper import tariffs passed without a final ruling, extending the uncertainty that has driven a historic wave of US stockpiling. More than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July alone, the
largest monthly inflow since comparable records began in 2014, pushing combined COMEX and LME inventories above 740,000 tonnes. LME copper held in a broadly USD
13,200–13,850 per tonne range through the month, with the cash-to-three-month spread moving further into backwardation as inventories outside the United States tightened. Forecasts remain divided: Goldman Sachs has continued to flag potential surpluses given robust mine supply, while J.P. Morgan projects a 330,000-tonne refined copper deficit for 2026 and the International Copper Study Group projects a smaller shortfall, with both citing roughly 475,000 tonnes of expected 2026 data-centre copper demand. For Zambia, sustained elevated prices remain a key support for export earnings and the Kwacha, even as the unresolved tariff question continues to distort trade flows and pricing between the LME
and COMEX.
Bumper Maize Harvest Adds to Fiscal Pressure Ahead of Election Standard Chartered flagged during July that a record maize harvest, output is expected to rise 28 percent year-on-year, will increase pressure on government finances, as the state remains the buyer of last resort for a growing share of Zambia’s maize surplus in the absence of a fully private sector-led grain market. Combined with election-year spending, the
bank now forecasts a 2026 fiscal deficit of approximately 5.0 percent of GDP, more than double the government’s original 2.1 percent target. Investors will be watching whether the incoming administration moves to shift grain marketing further toward private buyers as
production continues to expand toward the government’s longer-term target of 10 million tonnes, and whether renewed investment in solar generation can sufficiently offset the hydropower vulnerabilities exposed by the 2023–24 drought as copper sector expansion
proceeds.
Conclusion
July 2026 was a month of consolidation rather than fresh momentum for Zambia’s capitalmarkets. Inflation held its eight-year low, government securities auctions remained comfortably oversubscribed, and the LuSE’s index closed the month essentially unchanged, but the Kwacha’s reversal from appreciation to depreciation points to a market bracing for the August election. With no government bond auction held during the month and the next one scheduled for the Friday immediately following the vote, August’s securities auction is likely to be read as an early market verdict on the election outcome. Looking ahead, the principal watch items remain squarely political and fiscal: the shape of the government’s continued engagement with the IMF, the translation of copper sector investment commitments into higher output, and the government’s ability to manage a fiscal
deficit now expected to run well above its original target, driven by a record maize harvest and election spending.
